US mid-market earnings continue to climb from strong pre-Covid Q4 2019 results

Industrial sector weakened due to rising costs and physical supply chain issues

The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide an early look at the financial performance of public companies and GDP ahead of the earnings season.

NEW YORK, January 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Mid-market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index reported 22% EBITDA growth and 21% revenue growth in October and November 2021 compared to their October and November 2019 profits and receipts. The data of this report reflects the median performance of approximately 100 companies that were included in the Golub Capital Altman Index during both periods. The two-year comparison is intended to provide better insight than the report’s typical year-over-year analysis, given the impact of COVID-related lockdowns for much of 2020.

Golub Capital, (PRNewsFoto/Golub Capital)

“The boomflation continued into the fourth quarter,” said Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital. “For the third quarter in a row, median revenue and EBITDA increased by more than 20% compared to the same period in 2019, before Covid. That said, many industrial companies were unable to respond to demand, and missed operating leverage allowed for increased labor and material With Omicron, 2022 will reveal which private equity-backed companies have permanently resolved their Covid 2020 issues and which have just hit the road and will now face difficult times.

dr. Edward I. Altman said: “The consumer and technology sectors were once again the best performers, posting revenue and EBITDA growth of over 30% compared to the same period in 2019, while increasing the profit margins. Going forward, Omicron looks likely to drive dispersion in business performance based on industry as well as geography. Companies that sell intangible goods and services, such as software companies, will have easier than those that rely on physical assets and face-to-face interactions.

The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in conjunction with renowned credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and oldest index based on actual revenues and profits (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle-market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of more than 150 private US companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle-market lender. Released shortly before the quarterly public company earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of overall public company revenue and earnings growth rates in market indices such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly gross domestic product (“GDP”), based on historical statistical tests dating back to 2012, when the data began to be tracked.

The size and diversity of Golub Capital’s loan portfolio ensures that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in aggregate and sector data.

We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle-market companies, which are a major contributor to employment in the US private sector; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of public companies that make up the main stock indices; (3) are relevant to the overall economic performance of the US economy and (4) provide timely information to the investment community.

GCAI companies operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by industry segment. Given the index’s limited exposure to financials, utilities, energy and materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as “adjusted” versions of these. indices that exclude the aforementioned sectors.

About the Golub Capital Mid-Market Report
Golub Capital’s Mid-Market Report analyzes the results of the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median revenue and earnings growth of more than 150 private companies in Golub Capital’s loan portfolio for first two months of each calendar. trimester. It compares these results to U.S. gross domestic product and the financial performance of well-known market indices, including the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. The GCAI is produced by Golub Capital in conjunction with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman.

About Golub Capital
Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender and credit asset manager with over $45 billion capital under management. Golub Capital specializes in providing reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies backed by private equity sponsors. The firm’s expertise in sponsor financing also forms the foundation of its late-stage loan, broadly syndicated loan and opportunistic credit investment programs. Across all of its businesses, Golub Capital nurtures long-term, win-win partnerships that inspire loyalty from sponsors and private equity investors. Founded over 25 years ago, Golub Capital now has over 600 employees and lending offices in Chicago, New York, San Francisco and London. For more information, please visit

About the dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading credit market expert, Dr. Edward I. Altman is Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Credit and Debt Markets Research at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two dozen books and more than 150 articles in journals specializing in finance, accounting and economics. He was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was a member of the FMA, and was an early inductee into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance University of California, Los Angeles.

Important Disclosure
The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based on the data presented in the Index, and those opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could differ materially from those implied or expressed in these forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index was created based on information provided by third-party sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

Media Contact

Aleka Bhutiani, director of strategic communications
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