Calculated risk: September 2022


by Risk calculated on 09/10/2022 08:11:00

The main economic reports this week are the August consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales.

For the manufacturing sector, August industrial production and September surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Fed will be released this week.


—– Monday, September 12 —–

No major economic releases planned.


—– Tuesday, September 13 —–

06:00: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.

8:30 a.m.: The Consumer Price Index for August of the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in the CPI and a 0.3% increase in the core CPI. The consensus is that the CPI is up 8.1% year-on-year and the core CPI is up 6.1% year-on-year.


—– Wednesday, September 14 —–

7:00 a.m. ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results of the index of requests for the purchase of real estate loans.

8:30 a.m.: The Producer Price Index for August of the BLS. The consensus is for a decrease of 0.1% in the PPI and an increase of 0.3% in the base PPI.


—– Thursday, September 15 —–

8:30 a.m.: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be published. The consensus is for an increase to 225,000 from 222,000 last week.

8:30 a.m. ET: Retail sales for August will be published. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. These are monthly retail and restaurant sales, seasonally adjusted (total and excluding gasoline).

8:30 a.m.: the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, down from 6.2.

8:30 a.m. ET: The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -13.9, down from -31.3.

Industrial production
9:15 am: The Fed will publish Industrial production and capacity utilization for August.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in industrial production and for an increase in capacity utilization to 80.3%.


—– Friday, September 16 —–

10:00 AM: State employment and unemployment (Monthly) for August 2022

00:00: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary for September).

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